Wishful Whims

Today’s NFL ticket calls for two grudge matches in the making. The Pittsburgh Steelers host the San Diego Chargers in the late game and the Philadelphia Eagles land a third installment against New York at Giants Stadium.
I am looking forward to the feature matchups because I am a fan of Pittsburgh and New York. I want both to meet in Tampa for the Superbowl on February 1st. Is it wishful thinking to have both home teams advance to the conference championships games next weekend? Perhaps.
Take a look at Pittsburgh. Their quarterback is on the mend after suffering another concussion two weeks ago. Nobody expects him to ride the bench this afternoon, but how healthy is he? The Steelers need a strong offensive line to protect Ben or the Chargers will administer an authentic annexation. The line play for Pittsburgh is the team’s evident weakness. No matter how much the defense contains the Chargers and Phillip Rivers’ arm, the Steelers have to hold on to the ball long enough to compete. They have the home field advantage, and I am sure the weather in the Steel City does not favor the visiting warm weather team. As long as Mike Tomlin’s offense can carry the load, Pittsburgh should win this game. They are the better team despite the talent on San Diego. The Steelers beat the Chargers in a memorable 11-10 game earlier in the season. The game was close, but the Steelers were able to hold the ball longer, and that seemed to be the real difference. Say what you want about the momentum and charging Chargers. They were hot last week in putting Peyton’s Colts to shame. San Diego’s defense deserves a lot of credit for being able to stop the Indy attack. However, the Colts are not the Steelers. They have a lackluster running game. The Steelers are more effective rushing if Willie Parker sees touches. I think he will with the forecast and the fact Ben has been somewhat unstable. Rivers is a scary quarterback when he starts to throw downfield and he is very capable of the long-sustained drives. Long drives are what the Steelers should focus on for themselves in order to prevail. I think this game will be close in the first half. The Chargers may even hold a steady lead. But the Steelers will win this one handedly after all is said and done. They will be Superbowl bound again.
As for the showdown at the Meadowlands in the snow covered blue seats, it will be a battle. No if, ands or buts, this game will be a three point victory for one of the NFC teams. I am just unsure which one. I am rooting hard for Big Blue, but the Eagles make me nervous. I think they are the only team stopping New York from earning a second Superbowl appearance. Donovan McNab is a veteran and will come to play. New York seems to be concentrating solely on stopping Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is a big time runner when given room to pace downfield. Justin Tuck and Antonio Pierce have to be on their game and not allow Westbrook to gain yards. The Giants are not playing well when stopping third down attempts on defense as of late. Tom Coughlin’s team must improve quickly if they hope to make this a game. McNab can scramble out of the pocket and has the protection to find receivers. Defensively, Philadelphia ranks among the league’s best. Eli Manning I believe will have a big game. Brandon Jacobs running the ball is crucial, but no more than Manning passing effectively. If Manning can manage the game like rookie, Joe Flacco, did for Baltimore yesterday, the Giants have the upper-hand. If, however, he makes mistakes and shows the carelessness Jake Delhomme displayed last night, the Eagles will win a close one. Westbrook is not the Giants’ only concern. They need to remember the Eagles have other ways to beat teams and will be looking to put points on the board from the defense. I want to say the Giants will win but I can’t say for sure. I am pretty confident this won’t be a blowout either way though.

Parting points: “I’m the king of wishful thinking”.

Wildcard Weekend

Four playoff football games are scheduled for this weekend in what is known as “Wildcard Weekend”. I think for the first time in history all four road teams are favored. Being a home underdog in the playoffs is sometimes an advantage. The games should be close and the conditions competitive. Here are my humble hunches:

Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Both teams enter the weekend on the upside, having clinched a post-season seed during the NFL’s final week. The Dolphins host the visiting birds because they won the AFC East. Baltimore comes to Miami as a strong wildcard team with a rookie quarterback and head coach. Led by a glowing defense and hardcore secondary, the Ravens are not an easy out. The Delaware quarterback, Joe Flacco, manages a good game for a first year starter. Ray Lewis is the team leader on defense and if the Baltimore defense blitzes Chad Pennington with any success, Miami won’t be reaching the end zone very often. However, I am still picking the Dolphins to win. I like what I saw all season for Tony Sparano’s underrated offense. Ted Ginn, Jr. has come into his own finally and with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams splitting time in the backfield, the Dolphins are capable of sneaking out a win. They have found ways to be victorious all year long. Speaking of Long, the first overall draft pick, Jake Long, has been quiet this season. I would love to see something from him during the post-season. Pennington is the comeback player of the year and the Dolphins have all the momentum in the world right now. I think that counts for a lot more than people think. Chad will use his wildcat formation to confuse the Ravens. Give the Ravens credit though. No one expected Flacco to step up and lead this team into the playoffs. The game will be tight nonetheless.

Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers
The two AFC foes always play each other hard. For some reason, Peyton Manning has a difficult time against San Diego. The Chargers are the hosts because they won their division, but this is not the same team from years’ past. Clearly, San Diego has underachieved all year. The team suffered perhaps more injuries than any other in the league. They still managed to clinch the division after demolishing Denver last week in what probably cost Mike Shanahan his job. Quarterback Phillip Rivers is a stand-out player for the bolts. Because of his consistent and careful play, the Chargers redeemed themselves during the second half. Rivers will have to be lights-out again this weekend for his team to have a chance to advance. You could argue San Diego is the hottest team going into the playoffs if it wasn’t for their nine-straight winning opponent, the Colts. Indianapolis has experience at quarterback and head coach. Tony Dungy knows how to win road playoff games and you better believe Peyton Manning does as well. Manning will probably win the MVP of the league this year. I think the Colts are too strong defensively to allow the Chargers a win. San Diego’s secondary is their weakest spot and the Colts have receivers to exploit the hole. Look for a convincing Colts win. If the Colts win, they head to Pittsburgh in which will be one of the games I am most looking forward to.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings
If this game was being played in Philadelphia, I wouldn’t give the Vikings any chance. I am giving them half a chance only because the game is in mighty Minnesota. The Vikings are lucky to be in the playoffs. They lack a primetime quarterback and have virtually no offensive line or deep threats. They do have a top-ranked rush defense led by the injured lineman, Pat Williams. Adrian Petersen is the gifted running back and if Minnesota has a prayer against the Eagles defense, they need him to run, run, run. Petersen has fumbled five times in the last four games for Minnesota, so keeping a tight grip is crucial against the league’s fourth best rush defense. The conditions will probably favor the Vikings running game but Philadelphia has an equally stellar runner in Brian Westbrook. If Westbrook is good to go, Donovan McNabb will use him. McNabb does have some better than average receivers and he will use them to set up the run. The Eagles are well-coached by Andy Reid and Jimmie Johnson. The advantage for both teams is familiarity. The teams know each other pretty well. McNabb is an all-star and will outshine Tavaris Jackson behind center. The Vikings’ Bernard Berrian is legitimate and being at home will pump up the mediocre Minnesota offense. I can’t see the Vikings escaping with a win, especially because they have no deep threats. Nothing gives me the impression they are a playoff team. Last week, they struggled against a Giants team fielding mostly backups. The Vikings finished 2008 with a better overall record (10-6) but the Eagles are the better team.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals
When a veteran quarterback and one of the best receiving teams host a stranger to the post-season, you would tend to favor the former. The 9-7 Cardinals are the division winners and hosts to the offensive rookie of the year, Matt Ryan, and the Falcons. The Falcons overachieved and have come out of nowhere to be a contender this playoff season. Kurt Warner is the experienced veteran leader of Arizona but the Cardinals are not playing well as of late. If the trend continues, Arizona will not win. Ryan comes into his first post-season with nothing to lose. Playing at Arizona in the first round is his best bet in winning at all in the playoffs. Arizona poses an unthreatening defense. He will have time to throw and the Falcons can run the ball well. Atlanta will need a prepared plan for the Arizona offense. The Falcons’ secondary is key to winning the games because of the incredible Fitzgerald, Breaston and Boldin. The Falcons are a proven team when it comes to stopping teams in the red zone. I’ve been surprised Michael Turner has had the season of his life. He ran for close to 1,700 during the regular season. With Turner, the Falcons can manufacturer the points necessary to defeat Arizona in probably another very close contest. The Cardinals will make more mistakes and that is the prime reason for a Falcon flourishing.

Parting Points: Surprised to like this song: “Ulysses” by Franz Ferdinand

Pigskin Playoff Picks

The gridiron postseason is beginning to take shape as we embark on another fine football Sunday. I am going to make my early predictions for the division and wildcard winners. Parity has always been the NFL’s appeal and this year it is even more pronounced than ever. So many teams are lingering near the .500 mark and there are a few divisions with no standout performers. The Titans, Giants and Lions are probably the three exceptions. Tennessee is undefeated, New York is the reigning SuperBowl champs looking to repeat and Detroit has yet to record a victory in yet another horrendous season. I think the Titans will fall, perhaps today against the Jets at home. I do see the Giants returning to the Superbowl this year, and I honestly think Detroit will tie the 1976 Tampa Bay team for a no-win year.
My AFC breakdown begins in the East where I predict the NY Jets will come in first. The Jets did not topple New England and they have suffered some miserable losses and close calls. However, the Patriots endured too many injuries, especially at quarterback, to repeat as division winners. The Bills began this year as believable challengers. Trent Edwards and the Buffalo offense have not impressed me in the past three weeks. They are solid defensively but cannot compete with the football. Miami has been a surprisingly consistent team but how long can they ride Chad Pennington’s arm? The sneaky wildcat formation wins games, but only a handful. This is not the year for the Dolphins to make the post-season. I’ll take NY to win the division and New England, led by a still talented and balanced team, to earn an AFC wildcard spot.
The North is all but clinched by the Steel City. Pittsburgh is a legitimate SuperBowl contender this year. They do play in a weak division but no one is disputing their record. The Steelers have had to play the NFC East teams and that in itself is no easy task. Defensively, there is little to dislike for Pittsburgh. It is conceivable the AFC title could come down to Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee in what would be a defensive battle like no other.
The Titans are on their way to thwarting the AFC South. Led my Kerry Collins, Tennessee is physical up front and threatening in the backfield. Because this team is not battle tested, I do think they will struggle deep in the playoffs. But, the AFC is overall the weaker division in the NFL and any team can be victorious.
The West is a toss up between San Diego and Denver. If the Colts beat the Chargers tonight, Denver will likely win the west. The Chargers are slowly fading and are beat up defensively. Jay Cutler is the man in Denver but the Broncos defense is just as dismal as the Chargers’. The Broncos allow way too many points of defense. Neither team will make an impact in this post-season.
I like Indianapolis and New England as the wildcard teams. The Colts have underperformed for the most part this season. They play great November games though, and have bounced back to become a playoff team.

In the NFC, the Giants are poised to win the gritty East. The four teams in the division might end up with winning records yet not make the playoffs. The Cowboys have two easy games before the remainder of their schedule poses a challenging deed. I predict Dallas will fall short of the wildcard to the Washington Redskins. Without running back, Felix Jones, the Cowboys will have to find ways to get the ball to Marion Jones and hope for the best. Jim Zorn, if the 6-2 Redskins make the post-season, deserves coach of the year consideration. I didn’t expect the Redskins to even be a possibility for the wildcard this year. The Eagles need to beat New Orleans if they hope to stay alive in the NFC race. Donovan McNabb had four turnovers last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. You cannot do that and expect to be a playoff team.
Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago all come into week 12 with identical 5-5 records. The Vikings depend too much on the running game and the Bears rely heavily on their stout defense. Therefore, I am going with the Packers to win the NFC North. Aaron Rogers is a great anticipator behind center and he has the weapons in Greg Jennings and company to win the division.
The South is interesting because Carolina is currently posting the best record there. If the Panthers win the division, they will be seated either one or two, depending on the Giants’ finish. But looking at Carolina’s remaining schedule, I see them losing a few games. They travel to Green Bay next week, host Tampa Bay and Denver, and finish with two tough road games in New York and New Orleans. It appears the Bucs have an easier lineup with a home game against the Patriots, and road contests at Carolina and Atlanta before finishing the season with two home games against San Diego and Oakland. Jeff Garcia has proven himself in the past to redeem teams and I foretell a Bucs division crown. Even if Tampa Bay doesn’t win out, they will make the playoffs again this year as the wildcard. Carolina will fall short because Jake Delhomme makes too many mistakes. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are keeping their dapper record.
Arizona is the front runner for the NFC West, and they will win. The Cardinals have explosive receivers and an MVP quarterback. They will be tested today against New York however.
My NFC wildcard picks go to Washington and Carolina.


Parting points: Good songs: Anything by Incubus
Good movies: Almost anything with Steve Martin